The NBA presented all 30 general managers this week with a sweeping draft lottery overhaul that would expand the field, flatten the odds, and create a relegation zone penalizing the league’s worst franchises — a proposal with direct implications for Greater Carolina’s closest professional basketball franchise.
The plan, called the 3-2-1 lottery after the number of ping-pong balls each tier of team receives, would grow the lottery from 14 to 16 teams. The three clubs with the worst records land in a relegation zone and receive only two lottery balls each. Seven non-playoff teams outside that bottom tier get three balls apiece. The ninth and tenth play-in seeds each receive two balls, and the losers of the 7-vs.-8 play-in games get one ball. Under the proposal, all 16 picks would be drawn rather than just the top four, dramatically increasing each team’s potential movement up or down the board.
Commissioner Adam Silver stated after a board of governors meeting in March that the league would fix the tanking problem and that teams should assume their only incentive going forward would be to win games.
For the Charlotte Hornets — the NBA’s nearest franchise to Spartanburg at roughly 80 miles — the reform would have changed this spring’s math considerably. Charlotte finished 44-38, earned a play-in berth as the ninth seed, beat Miami in the opening play-in round, then lost to Orlando in the 7-vs.-8 game. That loss under the current rules gave the Hornets the 14th pick with no lottery involvement. Under the proposed 3-2-1 structure, a team that loses the 7-vs.-8 game receives one lottery ball. Charlotte’s April exit, under this framework, would have meant a lottery ticket instead of a fixed draft slot.
The odds math shifts substantially across the board. The worst team’s chance at the first overall pick drops from 14 percent to 5.4 percent. Teams in slots four through ten each hold 8.1 percent odds — equal to one another regardless of record within that range. The proposal also caps back-to-back top-pick wins and prohibits any team from landing three consecutive top-five picks. Picks in slots 12 through 15 would no longer be protectable in trades.
The Board of Governors is set to vote on May 28, with 23 of 30 owner approvals required for passage. The new rules would take effect beginning with the 2027 draft if approved; the 2026 lottery scheduled for May 10 would proceed under the existing format. A sunset provision would automatically end the system after 2029, giving the league three years to evaluate results before deciding whether to extend or replace it.
One tension analysts have flagged: losing the 7-vs.-8 play-in game under 3-2-1 earns a lottery spot, while winning it earns a likely first-round exit. That could create a perverse incentive to lose a marquee postseason game. Silver addressed this partly by proposing expanded commissioner authority to reduce a team’s lottery odds or modify its draft position as punishment for perceived deliberate losing, though enforcement criteria remain undefined.
